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Text sursă - engleză WHEAT: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
For 2005-2006, prices for most classes of wheat are expected to decline
from 2004-2005 largely due to increased supplies in the five major
exporting countries and lower import demand. The strong Canadian dollar
will continue to dampen returns to Canadian farmers. This issue of the
Bi-weekly Bulletin examines the situation and outlook for wheat for
2005-2006. "Wheat" refers to all wheat including durum, unless
otherwise specified.
World wheat supplies for 2005-2006 are forecast by the United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA) to increase slightly from 2004-2005.
Higher carry-in stocks are expected to more-than offset lower production
of 610 Mt, a 2% decline from last year. Wheat consumption is forecast
to increase, mainly due to higher feed use in the European Union (EU)
and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). World wheat carry-out stocks are
expected to decline by 5%, to 141Mt and the stock-to-use (S/U) ratio is
forecast to be near the record low of 22% recorded in 2003-2004. Trade
is expected to decline by 3%, to 108 Mt, mainly due to reduced imports
by China. Of the total exports, the US is expected to account for 25%,
with Canada, Australia, the EU-25 and FSU each contributing about 15%.
Non-durum wheat production is down only slightly, to 575 Mt and trade is
forecast to decline by 4% to 101 Mt, close to the 10-year average.
Durum wheat production is estimated by the International Grains Council
(IGC) at 35.5 Mt, 14% lower than last year. Trade is forecast to rise
by 15%, to a record 7.8 Mt.
United States
All wheat production is estimated by USDA at 2,170 million bushels (Mbu)
(59.0 Mt), only marginally above 2004-2005. Increased production of
hard red winter (HRW), white wheat and durum is expected to more-than
offset reduced output of soft red winter, (SRW) and hard red spring
(HRS) wheat. Total US wheat exports are forecast to decrease by 8%, to
975 Mbu due to increased competition from the EU and the FSU. As a
result of lower exports, carry-out stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio
are expected to increase from 2004-2005. US wheat imports, largely from
Canada, are forecast at 70 Mbu (including products), similar to 2004-
2005, and 14% below the 10-year average. Non-durum wheat imports will
be mainly Ontario winter wheat, due to the continuing duties on imports
of Canadian HRS wheat.
SRW wheat production is expected to decrease by almost 16% from last
year while HRW production increases by 9% and HRS production decreases
marginally. However, stocks are expected to rise for all classes of
wheat, pressuring wheat prices in general. For high quality milling
wheat, prices are expected to be further pressured by improved spring
wheat quality in western Canada.
For durum, production is forecast to rise by 4%, to 93 Mbu, marginally
above the 5-year average.
-----------------------------------------
The national loan rate under the US Security and Rural Investment
Act (FSRIA) for wheat for 2005-2006 is US$2.75/bu. There are individual
loan rates by class of wheat. The target price, which determines the
counter-cyclical payment (CCP) is US$3.86/bu for wheat and exceeds both
the loan rate and expected actual farm price. The target price is not
county-specific. The CCP is determined by the target price minus the
fixed payment (US$0.25/bu) minus the higher of the loan rate or the
average farm price. The CCP is based on 85% of a farmer's base area and
yields, and is decoupled from a farmer's actual seeded area.
-----------------------------------------
European Union-25
Although exports increased by 24% in 2004-2005, aided by an average
subsidy of US$8 per tonne (/t), carry-out stocks, consisting largely of
lower quality wheat, nearly tripled to a record 26.0 Mt. As a
consequence, EU domestic supplies are forecast to rise by 3%.
Production is forecast to decrease by 8% from 2004-2005 to 125.5 Mt, the
second-highest on record, versus the 5-year average of 121 Mt. Exports
are projected to rise by 11%, aided by continued use of export
subsidies. In the first week of February, 2005, EU resumed the weekly
open market export tenders, after suspending them for the previous 18
months due to burdensome stocks and the appreciation of the Euro against
the US dollar. EU domestic consumption is also forecast to increase due
to higher feed use, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease but
remain burdensome.
Durum wheat accounts for 8-10% of total EU wheat production and about
98% is from Italy, Spain, France and Greece, along the Mediterranean
Sea. EU production is estimated by IGC to decrease by 36% from 2004-
2005 to 7.3 Mt due to a drought in Spain and in Italy, as a result of
Common Agricultural Policy Reform, a reduction in seeded area. Imports
are projected to rise by 44% to a record 2.3 Mt. Canadian durum
exports to the EU are expected to rise significantly from the 0.3 Mt in
2004-2005. EU carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly to a
well-below normal level.
Australia
Australia had one of the driest autumns (March-May) on record but
precipitation during June improved moisture conditions at seeding time.
Wheat production is forecast by the USDA at 21.5 Mt, unchanged from last
year. Exports are projected to decrease marginally, to 15.5 Mt (July-
June), close to the 5-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast to
remain relatively unchanged at 5.9 Mt.
Australian durum production is forecast by the IGC at 0.5 Mt, the same
as 2004-2005. Below average yields are expected again this season
because of continued drought in parts of Australia and the relatively
late seeding this season. Australian durum tends to be of good quality
due to the hot dry growing conditions, and Australia has become a major
competitor in the premium Italian market. Exports are forecast by IGC
to rise by 25% in 2005-2006, to 0.5 Mt.
Argentina
For the 2005-2006 wheat planting season, Argentina has been dry,
particularly in the key wheat producing province of Buenos Aires, and as
a result, both area and yields are expected to decline from 2004-2005.
Production and exports are forecast to decrease significantly from 2004-
2005 to 13.5 Mt and 8.0 Mt (July-June), respectively.
Argentine durum is mainly grown in the southern part of the province of
Buenos Aires. Area seeded is expected to decrease as farmers switch to
more profitable crops, primarily sunflowers and soybeans. Yields are
expected to increase and production is forecast at 0.2 Mt, similar to
2004-2005.
Former Soviet Union
The FSU recovered from the severe winterkill of 2003-2004, with
production increasing sharply, particularly in Russia and Ukraine, in
2004-2005. For 2005-2006, production is forecast at 77 Mt, up 6% from
last year. Supplies are expected to increase by 9%.
Consumption is forecast to increase to the highest level since 1997-1998
due to increased feed use. Exports are projected to rise by 27%, to
18.5 Mt, second only to the record 25.4 Mt exported in 2002-2003.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase marginally.
India
Wheat production in India is supported by high internal guaranteed
prices, and has been steadily increasing due to improved yields. Indian
wheat tends to be of lower quality, and much has been exported as feed
into Southeast Asia. Exports were a record 5.7 Mt in 2003-2004. Indian
wheat does not compete directly with Canadian wheat in any market.
Consumption has exceeded production since 2002-2003. Wheat production
is forecast to be the same as last year at 72.0 Mt, 1 Mt lower than
projected consumption. India is forecast to be a net wheat importer in
2005-2006, for the first time since 1999-2000, importing 1.0 Mt, versus
exports of 0.5 Mt which are the lowest in 6 years. Carry-out stocks are
expected to fall to 3.6 Mt.
For durum, production is forecast by IGC at 2.0 Mt, unchanged from 2004-
2005. Most of it is used domestically.
China
Excluding the EU-25, China is the world's largest wheat producer, with
production averaging 92 Mt over the past 5 years. Due to lower
government support, area seeded to wheat has decreased by 28% since
1997-1998. This has largely affected the production of lower quality
wheat as the emphasis shifted to producing higher quality varieties.
As a result, Chinese wheat production and supplies fell and China began
to import wheat in 2003-2004, with imports reaching 7 Mt in 2004-2005,
the highest in a decade.
For 2005-2006, production is forecast to increase by 4% to 95 Mt but due
to lower carry-in stocks, supplies are projected to fall marginally.
However, Chinese wheat consumption levels have steadily declined since
2000-2001, as consumers have diversified their diets to include more
meat, fruits and vegetables. For 2005-2006, consumption is forecast at
101 Mt, the lowest since 1987-88. Imports are forecast to decrease to
3 Mt of which 1.5 Mt are expected to be sourced from Canada, versus
2.1 Mt in 2004-2005.
Middle East
Middle Eastern wheat production is forecast to decrease marginally from
2004-2005 causing imports to increase. The major Canadian market in
this region was Iran, which has imported large quantities of wheat in
previous years. However, wheat production in Iran is forecast to
increase to a record level leading to a decrease in wheat imports.
Canada is not expected to export wheat to Iran in 2005-2006, as was also
the case in 2004-2005.
Syria and Turkey are the major durum producers in the Middle East. For
2005-2006, Syrian durum production is expected to remain unchanged, at
2.5 Mt. Exports are forecast by IGC to rise by 45%, to a record 0.8 Mt.
Turkish production is also expected to remain unchanged, at 3.2 Mt.
Exports are forecast to double from 2004-2005, to 0.2 Mt.
North Africa
The North African countries, particularly Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and
Libya, are important to Canada as they make up the largest single world
market for durum wheat. North Africa is also a major market for non-
durum wheat, but not for Canadian wheat, sourcing most of their soft
wheat imports from the EU and US.
For 2005-2006 North African wheat production is expected to decrease due
to a drought in Morocco and Algeria. Total wheat production is forecast
to fall by 25%, at 12.4 Mt. Durum production is expected to decrease by
29%, to 3.8 Mt, due to reduced harvested area and lower yields, but
remain above the 10-year average of 3.5 Mt. As a result, total imports
are forecast by the USDA to increase by 6%, to 18.6 Mt. Durum imports
by Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya are forecast by IGC to rise by
24%, to 3.1 Mt. Durum exports from Canada to North Africa are projected
to increase significantly to about 1.5 Mt from 1.0 Mt in 2004-2005.
Canada
For non-durum wheat, 2005-2006 seeded area declined slightly, to
7.7 million hectares (Mha). In addition to this decline, abandonment is
expected to be historically high for the second consecutive year due to
excessive rain in Manitoba. A decrease of 3% in the harvested area
estimates by Statistics Canada (SC) reflect those expectations. Despite
poor yields in much of Manitoba, good moisture in the remainder of the
Prairies is expected to result in average yields just 4% below last year
record, at 2.61 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) {38.8 bushels per
acre (bu/ac}, about 4 bu/ac above the 10-year average. Production is
estimated by SC at 19.6 Mt, 6% below 2004-2005.
Assuming normal harvest weather, the quality of the crop in western
Canada is expected to be much better than in 2004-2005, when one of the
poorest quality crops on record was harvested due to premature frost and
wet harvest conditions. However, protein content is negatively
correlated with yields, so that protein levels may be below normal. In
Ontario, production is forecast to decline by 5% to 1.6 Mt, but with
good quality reported.
Carry-in stocks have risen by 28%, partially offsetting the lower
production. Supplies are projected to be only marginally lower than for
2004-2005. However, these stocks are largely of poor quality wheat,
which is expected to result in above-normal wheat feeding for the second
year in a row. Exports are forecast to increase by 16%, to 13.2 Mt, due
to increased supplies of good quality wheat. Carry-out stocks are
projected to fall by 18% to a historically low 4.5 Mt, due to improved
crop quality and strong export demand.
For durum wheat, 2005-2006 area seeded is similar to last year at
2.3 Mha, with reduced levels of abandonment resulting in a 4% increase
in harvested area. The good moisture and heat this summer has increased
durum yield potential, and the average yield is estimated at a well
above average 2.28 t/ha (33.9 bu/ac), just marginally lower than in
2004-2005. As a result, production is estimated to increase by 2%, to
5.1 Mt, the highest since 2000-2001.
As with non-durum wheat, quality is expected to be much better than last
year, but potentially below normal, due to the wet growing conditions.
As well, protein levels may be below average.
Carry-in stocks are up by 48%, at a record 2.7 Mt, with most expected to
be of lower grades. Supplies are projected to increase by 15%, to a
record 7.8 Mt, well above the 10-year average of 6.3 Mt. Exports are
projected to rise by 16%, to 3.6 Mt, due to increased supplies,
particularly of the top milling grades, and improved world demand,
particularly in the EU and North Africa. However, durum demand is
inelastic as there are few uses for the crop other than for pasta or
couscous, and it is unlikely that all Canadian supplies in 2005-2006 can
be exported or consumed domestically. Therefore, carry-out stocks are
expected to rise for the fourth consecutive year, to a record 3.2 Mt,
well above the 10-year average of 1.8 Mt.
PRICE OUTLOOK
World
For 2005-2006, wheat prices are expected to generally decrease from
2004-2005. Pressure from higher carry-out stocks in the US is expected
to more-than offset support from lower production and carry-out stocks
at the world level. As the major wheat futures markets are located in
the US, and since the US is a major producer and exporter of wheat, the
US market has a disproportionate impact on world wheat prices. Global
import demand is expected to decrease which also pressures prices
downward.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts that world prices, as
measured by the benchmark US Hard Winter Ordinary (HWO) price, FOB Gulf
ports, which is determined largely by the KCBT futures market, will
decrease to US$140-$150/t for 2005-2006 from US$154/t in 2004-2005
(August-July).
Traducere - rusă ПШЕНИЦА: ТЕКУЩЕЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ РЫНКА И ПРОГНОЗ
В 2005-2006 ожидается спад цен на основные классы пшеницы относительно уровня цен в 2004-2005, в осоновном, из-за увеличения предложения в пяти основных странах экспортерах и ослабленного импортного спроса. Укрепившийся канадский доллар продолжит снижение прибыльности канадского фермера. В этом выпуске мы провели исследование текущего состояния рынка и прогноза на 2005-2006. Под термином "Пшеница" мы понимаем все виды пшеницы включая дурум, если другое не указано дополнительно.
Минсельхоз США (USDA) прогнозирует небольшое увеличение предложения пшеницы в 2005-2006 относительно 2004-2005. Разница в запасах на начало года более чем сбалансирует уменьшение производства - 610 млн.т, что на 2% ниже прошлогоднего показателя. Прогнозируется увеличение потребления пшеницы, в основом благодаря увеличению её использования в комбикормовой промышленности ЕС и странах бывшего СССР. Прогнозируется уменьшение мировых переходящих запасов на 5% до 141 млн.т, а соотношение запасов к потреблению (запасы/потребление) обещает достигнуть рекордно низкой отметки 22%, зафиксированной в 2003-2004. Прогнозируется снижение объемов торговли на 3% до 108 млн.т, главным образом из-за сокращения импорта Китаем. В общем объеме экспорта США должно занять 25%, тогда как Канада, Австралия, ЕС-25 и страны бывшего СССР по 15% каждая.
Производство пшеницы, которая не класифицируется как дурум, упадет незначительно, на 4% до 101 млн.т., т.е.останется на уровне среднего показателя за последние 10 лет.
Международный Зерновой Совет (IGC) прогнозирует производство пшеницы дурум на уровне 35.5 млн.т, что на 14% ниже прошлогоднего показателя. Прогнозируется увеличение объемов торговли на 15% до рекордных 7.8 млн.т.
США
Минсельхоз США (USDA) прогнозирует производство всей пшеницы на уровне 2,170 миллионов бушелей или 59.0 млн.т едва превышая показатели 2004-2005. Ожидается, что увеличение производства твердой озимой пшеницы(HRW), белой пшеницы и пшеницы дурум более чем покроет сокращение производства мягкой белой озимой пшеницы (SRW) и краснозерной твердой яровой пшеницы(HRS). Ожидается снижение общего экспорта пшеницы из США на 8%, до
975 млн.бушелей в связи с возросшей конкуренцией со стороны ЕС и стран бывшего СССР. В следствие снижение экспорта, ожидается увеличение переходящих запасов и соотношения запасов к потреблению относительно 2004-2005. Импорт пшеницы США в основном из Канады ожидается на уровне 70 млн.бушелей (включая продукты переработки), что сравнительно с 2004-
2005 и на 14% ниже среднего десятилетнего показателя. Импорт пшеницы, которая не класифицируется как дурум, которая будет представлена в основном озимой пшеницей провинции Онтарио, из-за сохранения пошлины на канадскую краснозерную твердую яровую пшеницу HRS.
Ожидается спад производства мягкой белой озимой пшеницы (SRW) почти на 16% против прошлого года, в то время как производство твердой озимой пшеницы (HRW) увеличится на 9% и лишь символически уменьшится производство краснозерной твердой яровой пшеницы HRS. Тем не менее, ожидается рост запасов всех классов пшеницы, которые окажут давление на общий уровень цен на пшеницу. Цены на высококачественную продовольственную пшеницу ожидает усиленное давление со стороны улучшения качества яровой пшеницы в западной части Канады.
Прогнозируется, что производство пшеницы дурум вырастет на 4%, до 93 млн.бушелей, символически обойдя средний показатель за пять лет.
-----------------------------------------
ЕС-25
Не смотря на то, что экспорт вырос на 24% в 2004-2005, при помощи субсидии в среднем составившей US$8 за тонну, переходящие запасы, в основном состоящие из низкокачественной пшеницы почти утроились достигнув рекордных 26.0 млн.т. в следствие чего ожидается 3% увеличение внутреннего предложения. Прогнозируется 8% спад производства относительно 2004-2005 до 125.5 млн.т, что является вторым из самых высоких показателей против среднего индикатора 121 млн. тон за последние пять лет. Ожидается увеличение доли экспорта на 11%, подстегиваемое продолжением практики экспортных субсидий. На протяжении первой недели февраля 2005 ЕС возобновил еженедельные экспортные тендеры на открытом рынке, после 18 месячного перерыва из-за обременительных запасов и револьвации Евро против доллара США. Ожидается увеличение внутреннего потребления в ЕС благодаря росту потребления комбикормовой промышленностью. Прогнозируется уменьшение переходящих запасов, но они всё равно обещают оставаться обременительными.
Пшеница дурум составляет 8-10% от общего производства пшеницы в ЕС, более того 98% производства сосредоточено в Италии, Испании, Франии и Греции вдоль средиземноморского побережья. Производство ЕС оценивается МСЗ (IGC) в 7.3 млн.тон, что является 36% спадом относительно 2004-
2005 связанным с засухой в Испании и Италии, а также с уменьшением посевных площадей согласно Реформы Общей С/х Политики. Ожидается рост показателей импотра на 44% до рекордных 2.3 млн.т. Ожидается значительное увеличение экспорта канадской пшеницы дурум в ЕС с 0.3 млн.т в 2004-2005. Прогнозируется значительное уменьшение переходящих запасов, которые упадут до уровня значительно ниже среднего.
Австралия
Австралия пережила один из самых засушливых осенних сехзонов (март-май) но осадки, выпавшие в июне улучшили содержание влаги во время сева. USDA прогнозирует производство пшеницы на уровне 21.5 млн.т, т.е на уровне прошлого года. Прогнозируется символическое падение показателей экспорта до 15.5 млн.т (июль-июнь), что приравнивается к средним показателям за последние пять лет. Ожидается относительная стабильность в показателях переходящих запасов около 5.9 млн.т
МСЗ (IGC) прогнозирует производство австралийской пшеницы дурум на уровне 0.5 млн.т, то же что и в 2004-2005. В этом сезоне опять ожидают урожайность ниже среднего, вызванную продолжительной засухой в некоторых частях Австралии и довольно запоздалую посевную кампанию.late seeding this season. Австралийская пшеница дурум должна быть хорошего качества благодаря сухой и жаркой погоде. Австралия вышла на рынок высококлассной пшеницы Италии как один из основных конкурентов. МСЗ (IGC) прогнозирует рост экспорта на уровне 25% в 2005-2006 до 0.5 млн.т
Аргентина
На протяжении вегетации пшеницы в 2005-2006 погода в Аргенитине выпала сухая, особенно в основной провинцити по производству пшеницы – Буэнос Айресе. Следовательно, ожидается спад как урожайности так и посевных площадей против показателей 2004-2005. Ожидается значительный спад производства и экспорта против показателей 2004-2005 до 13.5 млн.т и 8.0 млн.т (июль-июнь), соответсвенно. Аргентинскую пшеницу дурум в основном выращивают в южной части провинции Буэнос Айрес. Ожидается уменьшение посевных площадей по причине перехода фермеров на выращивание более прибыльных культур, в основном подсолнечника и сои. Ожидается увеличение урожайности с выходом на уровень производства в 0.2 млн.т, т.е на уровень 2004-2005.
Страны бывшего СССР
Страны бывшего СССР пришли в себя от катастрофического вымерзания озимых в 2003-2004, резко увеличили производство в 2004-2005, особенно Россия и Украина. На 2005-2006, ожидается производство в 77 млн.т, что на 6% выше прошлогоднего показателя. Прогнозируется увеличение предложения на 9%.
Прогнозируется увеличение потребления до самых высоких уровней с времен 1997-1998 благодаря увеличению потребления фуража. Ожидается рост экспорта на 27%, до18.5 млн.т, что уступает только рекордному показателю 25.4 млн.т достигнутому в 2002-2003. Прогнозируется символическое увеличение переходящих запасов.
Индия
Производству пшеницы в Индии оказывают поддержку высокие гарантированные внутренние цены. Само производство неуклонно растет благодаря повышенной урожайности. Индийская пшеница обычно невысокого качества, большой количество которой экспортировалось в страны юго-восточной Азии в часестве фуража. Рекордных показателей экспорт достиг в 2003-2004 - 5.7 млн.т. Индийская пшеница не является конкурентом канадской пшеницы на каком-либо рынке..
Потребление превышало производство начиная с 2002-2003. Ожидается производство пшеницы на уровне прошлого года т.е. около 72.0 млн.т, на 1 млн.т ниже ожидаемого потребления. Индию рассматривают как нетто-импортера пшеницы в 2005-2006, впервые с времен 1999-2000, где импорт составляет 1.0 млн.т, против былого экспорта в 0.5 млн.т – самым низким показателем за последние шесть лет. Прогнозируется уменьшение переходящих запасов до 3.6 млн.т.
Прогноз производства пшеницы дурум МСЗ (IGC) находится на уровне 2.0 млн.т, что сравни 2004-2005. Почти вся пшеница потребляется на внутреннем рынке.
Китай
За исключением ЕС-25, Китай является самым большим в мире производителем пшеницы в среднем производя по 92 млн.т на протяжении последних пять лет. Из-за уменьшения государственной поддержки площади под пшеницей сократились на 28% с1997-1998. Это имело огромное влияние на производство пшеницы низкого качества, тогда как всё внимание стало уделяться производству высококачественных сортов. Следовательно, производство пшеницы в Китае и её предложение упало и повлекло за собой импорт в 2003-2004, которые в 2004-2005 достигли 7 млн.т, самого высокого уровня за последние десять лет.
Прогноз производства на 2005-2006, показывает рост в 4% до 95 млн.т, но из-за низких запасов на начало года, предложение всего лишь символически снизится. В то же время, уровни потребления пшеницы Китаем начали постоянно падать начиная с 2000-2001, когда потребители начали включать в свою диету больше мяса, овощей и фруктов. Прогноз потребления на 2005-2006 показывет уровень
101 млн.т, самый низкий с 1987-88. Ожидается, что импорт упадет до 3 млн.т из которых 1.5 млн.т могут быть поставленными из Канады против 2.1 млн.т в 2004-2005.
Ближний Восток
Прогнозируется, что производство пшеницы на Ближнем Востоке незначительно уменьшится от уровня 2004-2005, а импорт увеличится. Для Канады самым перспективным рынком в регионе был Иран, который импортировал значительные объемы пшеницы на протяжении прошлых лет. Однако, ожидается, что производство пшеницы в Иране вырастет до рекордных показателей тем самым нанеся удар по импорту пшеницы. Канада не рассчитывает на экспортные поставки пшеницы в Иран в 2005-2006, как и не рассчитывала на таковые в 2004-2005.
Сирия и Турция являются основными производителями пшеницы дурум на Ближнем Востоке. Прогноз производства пшеницы дурум Сирией на 2005-2006 остается на прежнем уровне 2.5 млн.т МСЗ (IGC) прогнозирует рост экспорта на 45%, до рекордных 0.8 млн.т.
Производство пшеницы в Турции прогнозируется на прежнем уровне 3.2 млн.т. Прогноз экспорта удвоен против показателей 2004-2005 до 0.2 млн.т
Северная Африка
Североафриканские страны включая Алжир, Марокко, Тунис и Ливию являются стратегическими для Канады, так как они составляю наибольший мировой рынок пшеницы дурум в одном географическом месте. Северная Африка также является огромным рынком для других видов пшеницы, но в основном закупки мягкой пшеницы ведутся не из Канады, а из ЕС и США.
На 2005-2006 прогнозируется спад производства пшеницы в Северной Африке из-за засухи в Марокко и Алжире.Общее производство пшеницы прогнозируется с уменьшением на 25%, до 12.4 млн.т. Ожидается спад производства пшеницы дурум на 29%, до 3.8 млн.т, в связи с уменьшением площадей для уборки и снижением урожайности, но все же показатели останутся на уровне выше средних показателей за последние 10 лет - 3.5 млн.т. Следовательно, общий импорт прогнозируемый USDA вырастет на 6%, до 18.6 млн.т. МСЗ (IGC) ожидает увеличение импорта пшеницы дурум Алжиром, Марокко, Тунисом и Ливией на 24% до 3.1 млн.т. Прогнозируется значительный экспорт пшеницы дурум из К
din engleză în rusă: Grain market report
Text sursă - engleză WHEAT: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
For 2005-2006, prices for most classes of wheat are expected to decline
from 2004-2005 largely due to increased supplies in the five major
exporting countries and lower import demand. The strong Canadian dollar
will continue to dampen returns to Canadian farmers. This issue of the
Bi-weekly Bulletin examines the situation and outlook for wheat for
2005-2006. "Wheat" refers to all wheat including durum, unless
otherwise specified.
World wheat supplies for 2005-2006 are forecast by the United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA) to increase slightly from 2004-2005.
Higher carry-in stocks are expected to more-than offset lower production
of 610 Mt, a 2% decline from last year. Wheat consumption is forecast
to increase, mainly due to higher feed use in the European Union (EU)
and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). World wheat carry-out stocks are
expected to decline by 5%, to 141Mt and the stock-to-use (S/U) ratio is
forecast to be near the record low of 22% recorded in 2003-2004. Trade
is expected to decline by 3%, to 108 Mt, mainly due to reduced imports
by China. Of the total exports, the US is expected to account for 25%,
with Canada, Australia, the EU-25 and FSU each contributing about 15%.
Non-durum wheat production is down only slightly, to 575 Mt and trade is
forecast to decline by 4% to 101 Mt, close to the 10-year average.
Durum wheat production is estimated by the International Grains Council
(IGC) at 35.5 Mt, 14% lower than last year. Trade is forecast to rise
by 15%, to a record 7.8 Mt.
United States
All wheat production is estimated by USDA at 2,170 million bushels (Mbu)
(59.0 Mt), only marginally above 2004-2005. Increased production of
hard red winter (HRW), white wheat and durum is expected to more-than
offset reduced output of soft red winter, (SRW) and hard red spring
(HRS) wheat. Total US wheat exports are forecast to decrease by 8%, to
975 Mbu due to increased competition from the EU and the FSU. As a
result of lower exports, carry-out stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio
are expected to increase from 2004-2005. US wheat imports, largely from
Canada, are forecast at 70 Mbu (including products), similar to 2004-
2005, and 14% below the 10-year average. Non-durum wheat imports will
be mainly Ontario winter wheat, due to the continuing duties on imports
of Canadian HRS wheat.
SRW wheat production is expected to decrease by almost 16% from last
year while HRW production increases by 9% and HRS production decreases
marginally. However, stocks are expected to rise for all classes of
wheat, pressuring wheat prices in general. For high quality milling
wheat, prices are expected to be further pressured by improved spring
wheat quality in western Canada.
For durum, production is forecast to rise by 4%, to 93 Mbu, marginally
above the 5-year average.
-----------------------------------------
The national loan rate under the US Security and Rural Investment
Act (FSRIA) for wheat for 2005-2006 is US$2.75/bu. There are individual
loan rates by class of wheat. The target price, which determines the
counter-cyclical payment (CCP) is US$3.86/bu for wheat and exceeds both
the loan rate and expected actual farm price. The target price is not
county-specific. The CCP is determined by the target price minus the
fixed payment (US$0.25/bu) minus the higher of the loan rate or the
average farm price. The CCP is based on 85% of a farmer's base area and
yields, and is decoupled from a farmer's actual seeded area.
-----------------------------------------
European Union-25
Although exports increased by 24% in 2004-2005, aided by an average
subsidy of US$8 per tonne (/t), carry-out stocks, consisting largely of
lower quality wheat, nearly tripled to a record 26.0 Mt. As a
consequence, EU domestic supplies are forecast to rise by 3%.
Production is forecast to decrease by 8% from 2004-2005 to 125.5 Mt, the
second-highest on record, versus the 5-year average of 121 Mt. Exports
are projected to rise by 11%, aided by continued use of export
subsidies. In the first week of February, 2005, EU resumed the weekly
open market export tenders, after suspending them for the previous 18
months due to burdensome stocks and the appreciation of the Euro against
the US dollar. EU domestic consumption is also forecast to increase due
to higher feed use, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease but
remain burdensome.
Durum wheat accounts for 8-10% of total EU wheat production and about
98% is from Italy, Spain, France and Greece, along the Mediterranean
Sea. EU production is estimated by IGC to decrease by 36% from 2004-
2005 to 7.3 Mt due to a drought in Spain and in Italy, as a result of
Common Agricultural Policy Reform, a reduction in seeded area. Imports
are projected to rise by 44% to a record 2.3 Mt. Canadian durum
exports to the EU are expected to rise significantly from the 0.3 Mt in
2004-2005. EU carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly to a
well-below normal level.
Australia
Australia had one of the driest autumns (March-May) on record but
precipitation during June improved moisture conditions at seeding time.
Wheat production is forecast by the USDA at 21.5 Mt, unchanged from last
year. Exports are projected to decrease marginally, to 15.5 Mt (July-
June), close to the 5-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast to
remain relatively unchanged at 5.9 Mt.
Australian durum production is forecast by the IGC at 0.5 Mt, the same
as 2004-2005. Below average yields are expected again this season
because of continued drought in parts of Australia and the relatively
late seeding this season. Australian durum tends to be of good quality
due to the hot dry growing conditions, and Australia has become a major
competitor in the premium Italian market. Exports are forecast by IGC
to rise by 25% in 2005-2006, to 0.5 Mt.
Argentina
For the 2005-2006 wheat planting season, Argentina has been dry,
particularly in the key wheat producing province of Buenos Aires, and as
a result, both area and yields are expected to decline from 2004-2005.
Production and exports are forecast to decrease significantly from 2004-
2005 to 13.5 Mt and 8.0 Mt (July-June), respectively.
Argentine durum is mainly grown in the southern part of the province of
Buenos Aires. Area seeded is expected to decrease as farmers switch to
more profitable crops, primarily sunflowers and soybeans. Yields are
expected to increase and production is forecast at 0.2 Mt, similar to
2004-2005.
Former Soviet Union
The FSU recovered from the severe winterkill of 2003-2004, with
production increasing sharply, particularly in Russia and Ukraine, in
2004-2005. For 2005-2006, production is forecast at 77 Mt, up 6% from
last year. Supplies are expected to increase by 9%.
Consumption is forecast to increase to the highest level since 1997-1998
due to increased feed use. Exports are projected to rise by 27%, to
18.5 Mt, second only to the record 25.4 Mt exported in 2002-2003.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase marginally.
India
Wheat production in India is supported by high internal guaranteed
prices, and has been steadily increasing due to improved yields. Indian
wheat tends to be of lower quality, and much has been exported as feed
into Southeast Asia. Exports were a record 5.7 Mt in 2003-2004. Indian
wheat does not compete directly with Canadian wheat in any market.
Consumption has exceeded production since 2002-2003. Wheat production
is forecast to be the same as last year at 72.0 Mt, 1 Mt lower than
projected consumption. India is forecast to be a net wheat importer in
2005-2006, for the first time since 1999-2000, importing 1.0 Mt, versus
exports of 0.5 Mt which are the lowest in 6 years. Carry-out stocks are
expected to fall to 3.6 Mt.
For durum, production is forecast by IGC at 2.0 Mt, unchanged from 2004-
2005. Most of it is used domestically.
China
Excluding the EU-25, China is the world's largest wheat producer, with
production averaging 92 Mt over the past 5 years. Due to lower
government support, area seeded to wheat has decreased by 28% since
1997-1998. This has largely affected the production of lower quality
wheat as the emphasis shifted to producing higher quality varieties.
As a result, Chinese wheat production and supplies fell and China began
to import wheat in 2003-2004, with imports reaching 7 Mt in 2004-2005,
the highest in a decade.
For 2005-2006, production is forecast to increase by 4% to 95 Mt but due
to lower carry-in stocks, supplies are projected to fall marginally.
However, Chinese wheat consumption levels have steadily declined since
2000-2001, as consumers have diversified their diets to include more
meat, fruits and vegetables. For 2005-2006, consumption is forecast at
101 Mt, the lowest since 1987-88. Imports are forecast to decrease to
3 Mt of which 1.5 Mt are expected to be sourced from Canada, versus
2.1 Mt in 2004-2005.
Middle East
Middle Eastern wheat production is forecast to decrease marginally from
2004-2005 causing imports to increase. The major Canadian market in
this region was Iran, which has imported large quantities of wheat in
previous years. However, wheat production in Iran is forecast to
increase to a record level leading to a decrease in wheat imports.
Canada is not expected to export wheat to Iran in 2005-2006, as was also
the case in 2004-2005.
Syria and Turkey are the major durum producers in the Middle East. For
2005-2006, Syrian durum production is expected to remain unchanged, at
2.5 Mt. Exports are forecast by IGC to rise by 45%, to a record 0.8 Mt.
Turkish production is also expected to remain unchanged, at 3.2 Mt.
Exports are forecast to double from 2004-2005, to 0.2 Mt.
North Africa
The North African countries, particularly Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and
Libya, are important to Canada as they make up the largest single world
market for durum wheat. North Africa is also a major market for non-
durum wheat, but not for Canadian wheat, sourcing most of their soft
wheat imports from the EU and US.
For 2005-2006 North African wheat production is expected to decrease due
to a drought in Morocco and Algeria. Total wheat production is forecast
to fall by 25%, at 12.4 Mt. Durum production is expected to decrease by
29%, to 3.8 Mt, due to reduced harvested area and lower yields, but
remain above the 10-year average of 3.5 Mt. As a result, total imports
are forecast by the USDA to increase by 6%, to 18.6 Mt. Durum imports
by Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya are forecast by IGC to rise by
24%, to 3.1 Mt. Durum exports from Canada to North Africa are projected
to increase significantly to about 1.5 Mt from 1.0 Mt in 2004-2005.
Canada
For non-durum wheat, 2005-2006 seeded area declined slightly, to
7.7 million hectares (Mha). In addition to this decline, abandonment is
expected to be historically high for the second consecutive year due to
excessive rain in Manitoba. A decrease of 3% in the harvested area
estimates by Statistics Canada (SC) reflect those expectations. Despite
poor yields in much of Manitoba, good moisture in the remainder of the
Prairies is expected to result in average yields just 4% below last year
record, at 2.61 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) {38.8 bushels per
acre (bu/ac}, about 4 bu/ac above the 10-year average. Production is
estimated by SC at 19.6 Mt, 6% below 2004-2005.
Assuming normal harvest weather, the quality of the crop in western
Canada is expected to be much better than in 2004-2005, when one of the
poorest quality crops on record was harvested due to premature frost and
wet harvest conditions. However, protein content is negatively
correlated with yields, so that protein levels may be below normal. In
Ontario, production is forecast to decline by 5% to 1.6 Mt, but with
good quality reported.
Carry-in stocks have risen by 28%, partially offsetting the lower
production. Supplies are projected to be only marginally lower than for
2004-2005. However, these stocks are largely of poor quality wheat,
which is expected to result in above-normal wheat feeding for the second
year in a row. Exports are forecast to increase by 16%, to 13.2 Mt, due
to increased supplies of good quality wheat. Carry-out stocks are
projected to fall by 18% to a historically low 4.5 Mt, due to improved
crop quality and strong export demand.
For durum wheat, 2005-2006 area seeded is similar to last year at
2.3 Mha, with reduced levels of abandonment resulting in a 4% increase
in harvested area. The good moisture and heat this summer has increased
durum yield potential, and the average yield is estimated at a well
above average 2.28 t/ha (33.9 bu/ac), just marginally lower than in
2004-2005. As a result, production is estimated to increase by 2%, to
5.1 Mt, the highest since 2000-2001.
As with non-durum wheat, quality is expected to be much better than last
year, but potentially below normal, due to the wet growing conditions.
As well, protein levels may be below average.
Carry-in stocks are up by 48%, at a record 2.7 Mt, with most expected to
be of lower grades. Supplies are projected to increase by 15%, to a
record 7.8 Mt, well above the 10-year average of 6.3 Mt. Exports are
projected to rise by 16%, to 3.6 Mt, due to increased supplies,
particularly of the top milling grades, and improved world demand,
particularly in the EU and North Africa. However, durum demand is
inelastic as there are few uses for the crop other than for pasta or
couscous, and it is unlikely that all Canadian supplies in 2005-2006 can
be exported or consumed domestically. Therefore, carry-out stocks are
expected to rise for the fourth consecutive year, to a record 3.2 Mt,
well above the 10-year average of 1.8 Mt.
PRICE OUTLOOK
World
For 2005-2006, wheat prices are expected to generally decrease from
2004-2005. Pressure from higher carry-out stocks in the US is expected
to more-than offset support from lower production and carry-out stocks
at the world level. As the major wheat futures markets are located in
the US, and since the US is a major producer and exporter of wheat, the
US market has a disproportionate impact on world wheat prices. Global
import demand is expected to decrease which also pressures prices
downward.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts that world prices, as
measured by the benchmark US Hard Winter Ordinary (HWO) price, FOB Gulf
ports, which is determined largely by the KCBT futures market, will
decrease to US$140-$150/t for 2005-2006 from US$154/t in 2004-2005
(August-July).
United States
Average US wheat prices are expected to decline due to higher US carry-
out stocks, which are negatively correlated with the average US farm
price. However, the price changes will vary by class of wheat, due to
different supply and disposition factors.
The supply of US SRW wheat, as estimated by the USDA, is expected to
decrease by about 9% as lower production more-than offsets higher carry-
in stocks. SRW prices on the CBoT are expected to average US$3.10-
3.15/bu versus US$3.18/bu for 2004-2005.
The supply of US HRW wheat is estimated to increase by 5% from 2004-2005
as higher US production more-than offsets lower carry-in stocks.
Production is estimated at 913 Mbu, up by 7% 2004-2005. The S/U ratio is
forecast to rise from 22% in 2004-2005 to 25% in 2005-2006. The premium
for HRW over SRW is expected to decrease to about US$0.15/bu, versus
US$0.24/bu in 2004-2005, and the 10-year average of US$0.22/bu. The
average nearby KCBT HRW price is forecast to decrease by about 5%, to
US$3.25-$3.35/bu (June-May).
The supply of US HRS wheat is estimated to decrease marginally as lower
production more-than offsets higher carry-in stocks. US production is
estimated to fall by 2%, to 516 Mbu. Due to increased competition from
other exporters, including Canada, exports are forecast to fall by 13%,
to 270 Mbu. Carry-out stocks are projected to increase by 6%, to
169 Mbu, with the S/U ratio rising to 33%, from 30% last year. The
premium over the KCBT is expected to return to a normal level of
US$0.20/bu, from US$0.14/bu in 2004-2005, so that the average nearby
futures price on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) is forecast to be
relatively unchanged from 2004-2005, at US$3.55-$3.60/bu.
However, assuming better quality and improved protein content in both
the US and Canadian HRS crops, premiums for top quality high protein
Dark Northern Spring (DNS) wheat are expected to decline, with the cash
premium for DNS with14% protein (DNS 14) at Minneapolis forecast to fall
by over 30%, to a slightly above-normal US$0.70/bu, with the average
DNS 14 cash price being US$4.25-4.30/bu, 7% below 2004-2005.
The supply of US durum wheat is estimated to increase by 10% from 2004-
2005 due to higher carry-in stocks and production. Production is
forecast to rise by 3% to 93 Mbu.
In addition, world durum prices are also expected to be pressured by
burdensome Canadian supplies. The US No.3 Hard Amber Durum (HAD) export
price FOB Gulf is expected to decrease from US$193/t in 2004-2005 to
US$175/t in 2005-2006 (June- May).
Canada
In most quality-conscious markets, the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB)
normally receives a price for wheat and durum that is competitive with
US prices for wheat of similar quality. The prices obtained by the CWB
are therefore, to a large degree, impacted by US crop conditions,
domestic consumption and exports.
CWB returns are expected to be similar to 2004-2005 for lower quality
spring wheat (low protein No.2 CWRS, No.3 CWRS and CPS), due to the
expected flat MGE HRS futures market. However, projected declining
premiums for DNS 14 will result in lower returns for higher protein Nos.
1 and 2 CWRS wheat. Canadian durum prices are forecast to decline, in
line with lower world and US prices.
Grain is traded on world markets in US dollars, and a stronger Canadian
dollar reduces returns in Canadian dollar terms. For 2005-2006, the
dollar is forecast to be only marginally stronger at about US$0.81,
versus US$0.795 for 2004-2005, so that the dollar will not have a major
impact on the year-over-year change in returns.
The CWB initial payments for 2005-2006 are significantly lower than
those set at the beginning of the 2004-2005 crop year, particularly for
non-durum wheat. The reason for the disproportionate decline in initial
payments for non-durum wheat, compared to the pool return outlook (PRO),
is that the PRO was much stronger at the beginning of the 2004-2005 crop
year. For example, the PRO for No.1 CWRS 12.5 in July 2004 was $214/t,
$20/t higher than currently projected and $24/t above the current
outlook for 2005-2006.
The July 2004 PRO turned out to be overly optimistic mainly due to the
larger than expected 2004-2005 world wheat crop and resultant higher
than projected carry-out stocks. The stronger than expected Canadian
dollar also eroded CWB pool returns in 2004-2005. August 1, 2004 the
dollar was worth US$0.76, and was expected to remain near that level for
the crop year, while it actually averaged about US$0.80. Similarly, the
current 2005-2006 PRO could be raised or lowered later in the year, as
more complete information on supply and disposition factors and actual
market prices becomes available.
Once the CWB has made significant sales at prices above the original
initial payment level, the sales revenue offsets part of the federal
government guarantee and the initial payments may be adjusted upwards.
The safety factor applies only to the unsold portion of the pool
account. These adjustments will occur earlier in the crop year if the
price outlook strengthens, but will in most cases be made eventually as
long as the price outlook does not decline significantly. For 2004-
2005, the initial payment for No.1 CWRS 12.5 was adjusted to $177.10/t
by the end of the crop year, $27.10/t higher than at the beginning,
despite the declining price outlook throughout the year.
-----------------------------------------
CANADA-US WHEAT TRADE DISPUTE
September 13, 2002
The North Dakota Wheat Commission and US Durum Growers launched a
petition asking the US government to initiate countervailing duty and
anti-dumping investigations against Canadian HRS wheat and durum
imports. They alleged that the Canadian government unfairly subsidized
Canadian wheat and that the CWB "dumps" wheat into the US at below
market prices.
March 4, 2003
Tariffs on Canadian imports to the US of 3.94% on HRS wheat and durum
were announced pursuant to the countervailing duty case. This
preliminary determination was a US domestic trade action, carried out
under US trade law and investigated by the US Department of Commerce
(DOC), which also makes the final determinations. The US International
Trade Commission (ITC) is also investigating whether injury had been
caused to the US wheat industry.
May 2, 2003
Based on preliminary findings that Canada was dumping wheat into the US
at below market prices, the US DOC imposed preliminary anti-dumping
duties of 6.12% on HRS wheat and 8.15% on durum, in addition to the
3.94% duties imposed by the US in March over subsidy allegations.
August 29, 2003
The US DOC increased combined tariffs on Canadian HRS wheat and durum
exports to the US to 14.15% and 13.55%, respectively, in its final
determination.
October 3, 2003
The US ITC determined that imports of durum wheat were not injuring US
producers but that imports of HRS wheat were injuring the US wheat
sector. Thus the existing tariffs on HRS wheat remain but were removed
for durum.
March 10, 2004
A NAFTA panel ordered the US DOC to reconsider duties on spring wheat
imports from Canada. Panellists decisively rejected the US DOC
treatment of the three guarantees as a single program under the heading
of inancial risk coverage and required that each guarantee to be
separately evaluated. The panel reaffirmed the US DOC decision to
assess a 0.35% duty resulting from government provision of railcars.
June 7, 2005
A North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) panel said it could find
"no substantial evidence" to support the injury allegations. The US
Panel noted that the US ITC had failed to prove causation between
imports of Canadian wheat and circumstances in the US wheat industry.
The US ITC is expected to respond to the Panel on October 5, 2005.
August 8, 2005
The US DOC lowered the level of countervailing duties on imports of
Canadian wheat to 2.54% from 5.29% in response to an order by a NAFTA
panel. An 11.4% combined tariff still remains on HRS wheat.
Traducere - rusă ГРЕЧИХА: ТЕКУЩЕЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ РЫНКА И ПРОГНОЗ
Гречиху можно использовать в различных целях. Среди прочих растений, она известна как один из наилучших источников белка с высокой биологической ценностью. Несмотря на своё название, гречиха технически является фруктом или орехом, а не зерновой культурой. Хотя производство этой культуры в Канаде теперь находится на низком уровне, ожидается увеличение производства с введенем новых сортов и увеличением потребления в Канаде и США.
МИРОВОЙ РЫНОК
Мировое производство гречихи нестабильно и за последнее десятилетие спад производства был очевиден. Доля Китая в мировом производстве гречихи обычно составляет около 50%, России около 20%, а Украины около 15%.
Мировой экспорт гречихи в среднем за последне 5 лет заканчивая 2004 годом составляет 173,000 тон в год. Китай обычно экспортирует около 75% мирового объема, а Япония обычно импортирует около 60% мирового объема.
КАНАДА
Производство
Гречиха это широколистное растение, которое предпочитает легкие или средней твердости грунты, которые хорошо пропускают влагу. Сев производится обычно в начале июня, как только риски заморозков становятся минимальными. Цикл вегетации 80-90 дней. Отличный предшественник для севооборота с зерновыми культурами. Ей нужно намного меньше азота чем зерновой культуре и она очень хорошо извлекает фосфор из грунта для своих нужд. Она также увеличивает количество фосфора, доступного для следующей культуры, путем разложения остатков. Гречиха чувствительна к стрессу в случае сухой погоды, потому что поры на листьях находятся в откытом состоянии и растение увядает.
Бороться с сорняками на посевах гречихи сложно, потому что существует мало гербицидов, а особенно для широколистных сорняков. Сеют гречиху позно, поэтому обычно контроль над сорняками осуществляется путем предпосевной культивации. Собирают урожай гречихи в Канаде обычно в сентябре или начале октября.
Производство гречихи в Канаде все последние 20 лет шло на спад. Хотя гречиха производится и в провинциях Меритайм и Альберта, Манитоба обычно производит более половины всей гречихи в Канаде, а остальная часть в основном - в провинциях Онтарио и Квебек.
Использование
Гречиха - очень питательна, из неё можно изготовить множество продуктов. Гречневый белок легко усваивается и приравнивается к животным белкам. У неё хорошо сбаллансированный аминокислотный состав, которого нет в зерновых, а также гречиха богата на железо, калий, магний, серу и фосфор, витамины B и P. Гречиха фактически не содержит жиров и клейковины. Важный производный продукт гречихи- это мёд, произведенный из нектара, собранного пчелами во время цветения.
Гречиху измельчают в светлую или тёмную муку, или производят мелко- или крупнозернистую крупу. Гречневая мука смешивается с пшеничной мукой для приготовления лапши Соба в Японии. Производится много гречихи сорта Кобан и Кото, у которых содержание крахмала на 7-8% выше остальных сортов. К тому же, крахмал мягче и он позволяет сделать лапшу удобной для жевания. Этот фактор -немало важен. Это также позволяет мукомолам Японии использовать до 80% гречихи в составе лапши вместо обычного соотношение 50-50 с пшеничной мукой.
Гречневая мука также используется для производства блинных смесей, или же смешивается с пшеничной мукой для выпечки хлебо-булочных изделий. Её также смешивают с манной крупой для производства макаронных изделий а также используют для производства сухих завтраков, воздушных закусок и начинок. Поскольку гречиха не содержит клейковины, её можно использовать для производства муки, обогащенной высококачественным белком, ценной для людей, чувствительных к заболеванием кишечника.
Мелко- и крупнозернистые крупы можно употреблять просто так, можно поджарить или добавить приправу. Поджаренные мелко- и крупнозернистые крупы в центральной и восточное Европе известны как каши, которые употребляют отдельно или как начинку. Крупы также используются для украшения различных хлебо-булочных изделий. Их также используют как заменитель мяса или добавки для начинки мясных и овощных блюд, для добавки в суп или рагу, а также как гарнир. Гречиху также используют при производстве пива и мороженного.
Гречиху с низким натурным весом используют для смесей, употребляемых в качестве птичьего корма. Шелуху можно использвать для производства подушек, и т.д.
Сбыт
Вся гречиха, выращенная в Канаде продается посредникам на открытом рынке. Её обычно продают в течение года после сбора урожая, потому что она утрачивает ценность с момента, когда гречиха нового урожая начинает появляться на рынке.
Канадкая Ассоция Специальных Культур (КАСК) (www.specialcrops.mb.ca) устанавливает правила торговли на внутреннем рынке, а также служит форумом для экспортеров и посредников, которые занимаются реализацией зернобобовых и других специальных культур, включая гречиху.
Канадская Зерновая Комиссия (КЗС) (www.grainscanada.gc.ca) устанавливает стандарты по качеству гречихи.
Внутренний рынок, экспорт и ценообразование
В Канаде работает несколько небольших предприятий, занимающихся переработкой гречихи на муку, крупы, включая органическую продукцию. В Канаде также добавляют гречиху в смеси для птичьего корма.
Япония и США – это основные рынки сбыта для канадской гречихи. Основной импорт гречихи это продукция США.
Средние цены в Канаде на все сорта и условия поставки были стабильными на протяжении последего десятилетия. В большинстве случаев гречиху выращивают по контракту, который гарантирует цену на часть или всё производство ещё до посева.
ПРОГНОЗ
2005-2006
Прогнозируется спад мирового производства гречихи относительно показателей 2004-5, которые являются выше среднестатистического уровня.
Прогнозируется, что производство гречихи в Канаде останется стабильным, поскольку уменьшение посевных площадей компенсируется увеличением урожайности. Все же, прогнозируется спад предложения из-за снижения переходящих запасов, и, соответственно, снижения экспорта и внутреннего потребления. Ожидается, что переходящие запасы будут символическими. Средняя цена на все классы и условия поставки останется стабильной.
Канада: Долгосрочная перспектива
Существует три первоочередные проблемы, с которыми сталкивается производитель гречихи в Канаде:
1) низкая урожайность
2) недостаточная устойчивость к лесистой местности
3) сложности в борьбе с сорняками
Роабота ведется над всемя тремя проблемами и позитивные изменения должны повлиять на рентабельность производства гречихи.
Ещё одним методом повышения рентабельности производства гречихи является увеличение спроса и укрепление цен. Это влечет за собой селекционирование сортов, которые пользуются высокой пополярностью в Японии и рекламу здорового питания, которая включает продукты переработки гречихи на североамериканских рынках.
У гречихи есть потенциал быть использованной в фармацевтической промышленности и производстве пищевых добавок. Гречиха богата на лизин, аминокислоту, которую используют при производстве пищевых добавок.
Гречиха содержит антиокислители: рутин, керцетин, катехин, эпикатехины и проантоцианиды.
Увеличение потребления в Канаде и США, а также увеличение поствок в Японию и другие страны увеличит производство, диверсификацию этой культуры и расширит сферу внутренней переработки.
--------------------------------
СЕМЕНА ЛЬНА: ТЕКУЩЕЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ РЫНКА И ПРОГНОЗ
Канада сохраняет за собой мировое лидерство по производству семян льна, удерживая около 80% мирового рынка. Соответственно, поставки семян льна из Канады имеют сильное влияние на мировой рынок этой культуры.
Канада ежегодно экспортировала семена льна в среднем на протяжении последних пяти лет на сумму почти в $250 млн. Прогнозируется, что предложение из Канады в 2005-2006 увеличится почти на 2/3, потому что рекордный урожай за последние несколько лет выпал на тот период, когда переходящие запасы находятся на рекордно низком уровне. Ожидается, что экспорт тоже значительно вырастет. Ожидается стремительное падение цен до отметки $325 за тонну с почти $500/т, которая держалась почти на протяжении всего сезона 2004-2005. Мы остановимся на текущей ситуации на рынке семян льна в 2005-6, а также опишем прогноз на 2006-2007.
МИРОВОЙ РЫНОК
Мировое производство 2005-2006 основных десяти масличных культур, включая соевые бобы, семя хлопчатника, рапс, подсолнечник, арахис, ядро пальмовое, ядро кокосового ореха, семена сезама, семена льна и кастора) оценивается в 377.3 млн.тон, что является увеличением всего лишь на 3 млн.тон по сравнению с 2004-2005. Производство семян льна оценивается в 2.60 млн.тон, то есть менее 1% мирового производства.
Мировое производство семян льна за последние пять лет находилось на уровне 2.0 -- 2.5 млн.тон. Тем не менее, годовая мировая переработка семян льна на масло за последние пять лет стабильно находилась на уровне 1.86 млн.тон. Страны ЕС-25 имеют самые большие в мире мощности по переработке семян льна, вслед за ними идут Китай и США. Процесс переработки в конечном итоге дает нам льняное масло и льняной шрот.
В 2004-2005 мировая переработка семян льна немного снизилась до 1.82 млн.тон с 1.92 млн.тон в 2003-2004, из-за уменьшения доли переработки в ЕС-25. Из-за заморозков в середине августа в основных канадских провинциях, где выращивают лён, которые повлекли за собой запоздалый посев и неспелые семена, снизилось предложение семян льна. Поэтому, производство и качество семян льна было недостаточным для удовлетворения потребностей ЕС-25.
В 2004-2005 спад переработки в ЕС был в основном сбалансирован увеличением переработки в США на 0.37 млн.тон. Увеличение переработки в США случилось благодаря увеличению импорта из Канады и стабильного внутреннего производства в США на уровне 0.27 млн.тон. Переработка семян льна Китаем осталась на стабильном уровне - 0.42 млн.тон, благодаря наличию товара на внутреннем рынке.
Торговля
В 2004-2005 мировая торговля семенами льна резко упала до уровня 0.64 млн.тон, с 0.82 Млн.тон в предыдущем году из-за проблем с производством в Канаде. В основном мировая торговля семенами льна представлена канадским экспортом в ЕС-25 и США. Небольшие объемы экспортируются из США и Аргентины, где поставки из Северной Америки за последние пят лет находились на уровне от 11,000 т до 100,000 т, в то время как Аргентинские поставки достигли рекордной отметки в 2004-5 с показателем в 23,300 т.
ЕС-25 импортирует от 0.4 млн.тон до 0.6 млн.тон семян льна в год, тогда как США обычно импортирует от 50,000 т до 150,000 т семян льна в год.
Льняное масло и льняной шрот
Мировое производство льняного масла за последние пят лет находилось на уровне 0.6 млн.тон - 0.7 млн.тон. Основные производители льняного масла это ЕС-25, США
и Китай. Благодаря использованию льняного масла для производства красок, разбавителей и линолиума, все из которых конкурируют на рынке продуктов переработки нефти, спрос и цены на льняное масло в основнов находятся под влиянием мировых цен на нефть, нежели под влиянием цен на другие растительные масла. Ожидается, что взлет цен на нефть будет стимулировать спрос на льняное масло. Не удивительно, что ЕС-25, Китай и США являются основными потребителями льняного масла. Объем мировой торговли льняным маслом едва превышает уровень 0.1 млн.тон в год, где на ЕС-25 и США отдельно взятые грубо приходится по 1/3 от общего объема мировой т
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Biografie
Since early nineties after the fall of the Berlin Wall and Iron Curtain, when pioneering foreigner businessmen toured Ukraine, famous for its rich arable land once the Breadbasket of Europe and attractive place to invest in the emerging markets I had the honor to start my career of interpreter and translator. After my graduation as a linguist I worked for two years at a unique Soviet plant which produced electron microscopes in a foreign trade department. However, as new independent Ukrainian state was developing I was trying to compete for more challenging position and finally I got a job at Ukraine’s first English language weekly publication, which was distributed among the first international community living and working in Ukraine since Ukraine’s independence where a team of native speaking journalists and editors was editing translations delivered by Ukrainian and Russian natives.
Today with many years of experience and native environment exposure I do all sorts of translation and interpreting services in my hometown Kyiv and elsewhere in the world supporting companies and individuals while organizing tours across Ukraine and Eastern Europe both business and tourism providing translation/interpreting and cultural adaptation services. I enjoy this profession, it is a lot of fun.
For references please see the list of Clients and Projects:
============================================
* Recent projects: Agriculture and Agribusiness
- Crop/Livestock Insurance and reinsurance (Marsh&McLennan)
- IFC Agricultural Projects (Ukraine)
- Agrobrain projects (Switzerland, Ukraine)
- UPB UK Pig Breeding Projects (Ukraine and Russia)
- British Pig Association (UK, Northern Ireland, Moscow, Ukraine)
- UK Livestock Commission www.mlc.org.uk
- Livestock Management Services MO, USA
- Grains and Oilseeds Market reviews (Holland)
- Agricultural News and Digests (USA)
- Commercials dubbing (Bs.As., Argentina)
- Malting barley varieties research papers (France)
- Gold mining projects (UK)
- Land leasing and crop production project (Romania)
- Telework Agreements (Portugal)
- Jacklin Seed (turf grasses manual)
- Lancome (products manual)
Previous Experience:
* Legal translations for Schoenherr Ukraine
* Legal translations for Magister & Partners
* Legal translations for Gvozdiy & Oberkovych
* Legal translations for Mary Kay Ukraine
* Legal translations for Equipment Direct, Inc.
* OSCE: interpreter during Presidential elections in Ukraine
* CASE Ukraine: (social and economic development center) simultaneous conference translation
* APK-Inform: simultaneous translation of the first international oilseeds conference in Ukraine
* APK-Inform: agricultural analytical agency in Ukraine. Translating weekly grain and oilseeds market reports
* Agricultural Association of Advisory Services in agriculture: translation of negotiations with the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture
* Rapala: translating of a 2hr commercial into Russian and dubbing in. Conferences.
* ProAgro: agricultural analytical agency in Ukraine. Translating weekly grain and oilseeds market reports
* SCAFCO grain bins: translating technical documentation on grain bins and warehouse equipment, USA
* SWEET grain handling equipment, USA
* Russian Grain Union: translating warehouse receipt presentations
* Turkish tourism industry website support
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Membru din May '05
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