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Anybody in the U.S. worried about the ProAct?
Thread poster: Esther Pugh
Abba Storgen (X)
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Which stage are we on now? Mar 16, 2021

My responses:

Dan Lucas: "Software developers" is not entry coders. It takes years and tons of work to get to that point, and you better be young. Statistics also will tell you that photographers are making decent money, but in reality more than 90% of them have disappeared (bankrupted) in the last 2 decades. The few ones that are left are sponsoring gear, or have kept "photography" in their tax returns just for tax cuts for new gear.
Same for "musicians" - they used t
... See more
My responses:

Dan Lucas: "Software developers" is not entry coders. It takes years and tons of work to get to that point, and you better be young. Statistics also will tell you that photographers are making decent money, but in reality more than 90% of them have disappeared (bankrupted) in the last 2 decades. The few ones that are left are sponsoring gear, or have kept "photography" in their tax returns just for tax cuts for new gear.
Same for "musicians" - they used to be more than 300,000 of them in the US, most middle class incomes. At some point an impression was given through social media that there were tens of thousands of "hip hop" artists. So Jaron Lanier and his team made a real world survey and they discovered that no more than 50 (fifty only) were making a living from their music. I was shocked myself. He called the phenomenon "phantom economy", an economy not existing in real life, but only as an impression by social media and statistics taken out of tax returns, not counting the population of practitioners.
Example:
Year 2000: 20,000 photographers making an average of $50,000 each.
Year 2020: Only 1,000 photographers left, but since they're doing other jobs too, the average has gone up to $70,000.
It's a fast dying field, but the salary statistics will show you the opposite.
You can't rely on internet sources to give you an accurate representation of real life - you have to enter it yourself.
Another example, in the translation industry our earnings per hour have decreased, but the agencies are showing increased profits. So the public assumes we're getting rich over here. Translators are getting second occupations, mingling everything in their tax return and presto!

Sadek A: You say "you call on T&Is to contact their senators for an act-mandated, say, 40% minimum of workload going to US-based providers".
This is impossible to calculate and to enforce. Such suggestions are only mental exercises, they do not exist in the real world. You can't impose such rules on private companies in the US. Imagine project managers running out of resources in the middle of the day due to "spreads" they have to follow and limits not to exceed. Because they never know how big or small the next project will be. It'll be like demanding from agencies to predict the future on a daily basis.

Chris S: You say "... resulting in an equal amount of work flowing into the US from those non-US clients."
This won't happen because over here we won't be allowed to work as free lancers. As crazy as it seems, this law is a prohibition to work for yourself if the client is in the same business as you!
This law leads to "you must become an employee, you must be member of a union with monthly fee out of your salary, and that's it". Basically they think that if society is not like it was 100 years ago, so that they can apply their outdated ideas, they will first take society back 100 years, so that they can re-live the dream of the workers' revolution. They first have to make us all workers, otherwise it won't work.
And while they're advocating home-based work, at the same time they're killing much of it via the Pro Act. Future generations will be scratching their heads.

At any rate, you can call Senators and whatever, but our numbers are tiny. And we don't have the Press/Media on our side. The proposal of this law alone has already caused much damage which can't be undone. The question is of course, for US-based translators, whether it is worth to keep trying or it's better to explore other (more locally based) business options, or go back to our home countries, since all advantages of the US markets are being eliminated. Not much of a country of opportunity anymore, and why pay taxes to such governments?



[Edited at 2021-03-16 02:02 GMT]
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Ildiko Santana
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Even more (?) clarity Mar 16, 2021

Please take the time to read this legal analysis. Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions. If you are in the US, you have every reason to worry. We here in CA have been living with the consequences of AB5 for over a year now. I hope the rest of the country will never have to experience this struggle that was only amplified by the pandemic in... See more
Please take the time to read this legal analysis. Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions. If you are in the US, you have every reason to worry. We here in CA have been living with the consequences of AB5 for over a year now. I hope the rest of the country will never have to experience this struggle that was only amplified by the pandemic in the same year AB5 became law.

https://www.littler.com/publication-press/publication/pro-act-would-upend-us-labor-laws-non-union-and-unionized-employers

"The PRO Act encompasses more than 50 significant changes to current law and seeks to overhaul the NLRA for the first time in more than 70 years. Set forth below are the most noteworthy aspects of the PRO Act, including that it would:

Effectively overturn state “right to work” laws
Codify the “ABC test” to deem independent contractors “employees” covered by the NLRA
Limit the ability of employers to contest union election petitions and allow unions to engage in coercive tactics long held to be unlawful
Restrict the ability of employers to obtain labor relations advice
Facilitate union organizing in micro-units
Redefine the definition of “supervisor” to include more frontline leaders as “employees” covered by the NLRA
Change the definition of “joint employment” and force businesses to alter their structures or face liability
Give employees the right to utilize employer electronic systems to organize and engage in protected concerted activity
Prohibit employers from using mandatory arbitration agreements with employees
Force parties into collective bargaining agreements via interest arbitration
Expand penalties for violations of the NLRA

State Right-to-Work Laws Protecting Employee Freedom of Association Would Effectively be Eliminated

Twenty-seven states currently have right-to-work laws, permitted by the NLRA, that provide employees cannot be compelled to join or pay dues to a union as a condition of their employment. The PRO Act effectively overturns these state laws by amending the NLRA to permit “fair share agreements.” The PRO Act states contract provisions requiring that “all employees in a bargaining unit shall contribute fees to a labor organization for the cost of representation, collective bargaining, contract enforcement, and related expenditures as a condition of employment shall be valid and enforceable notwithstanding any State or Territorial law.” By compelling all employees in a bargaining unit to contribute fees to the union as a condition of keeping their jobs, the PRO Act would provide a financial benefit to unions at the expense of each covered employee.

Independent Contractors Likely Deemed “Employees” with the “ABC Test”

By limiting NLRA coverage to “employees,” Congress made a deliberate choice to exclude independent contractors from collective bargaining and instead to treat each independent contractor as a business governed by market forces. With the country’s workforce increasingly joining the gig economy as independent contractors, the PRO Act seeks to revise the NLRA to incorporate the “ABC test” and reclassify millions of traditional independent contractors as “employees” subject to union representation. The restrictive ABC test precludes independent contractor status unless “(A) the individual is free from control and direction in connection with the performance of the service, both under the contract for the performance of service and in fact; (B) the service is performed outside the usual course of the business of the employer; and (C) the individual is customarily engaged in an independently established trade, occupation, profession, or business of the same nature as that involved in the service performed.”

California’s implementation of the ABC test in Assembly Bill 5, which became law in 2019, resulted in a backlash from technology and other businesses. The California legislature enacted AB 5 to make the use of independent contractors in certain industries nearly impossible. At the urging of organized labor, AB 5 codified the modified ABC test as rewritten by the California Supreme Court in its Dynamex v. Superior Court1 decision. Prong B of the ABC test made it much harder for a worker to be classified legally as an independent contractor. As a result, California businesses had either to assume all liability associated with an employer-employee relationship or stop using the services of independent contractors who did not meet AB 5’s stringent test. In November 2020, 58.4% of voters in California passed Proposition 22, supporting the societal benefits of gig workers and rejecting California state and labor leaders’ efforts to force their pro-labor agenda on others."
- - -

Dan Lucas wrote:

A thoughtful summary from the Authors Guild.

What this means is that, if the PRO Act is enacted.............
If the bill is passed, it still looks to me like a potentially negative change for US freelancers, but what do I know? I guess we'll have to see what happens.

Dan
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Ildiko Santana
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Lack of logic Mar 16, 2021

Chris S wrote:

Isn't there a lack of logic in here somewhere?


I'm afraid there is.


In the unlikely event that the largest translation market in the world with the largest pool of translators suddenly outsourced everything to translators abroad...

... non-US translators would then be too busy with US clients to service their non-US clients...
CORRECT

... resulting in an equal amount of work flowing into the US from those non-US clients.
INCORRECT



There will not be enough US-based providers left, if the PRO Act passes. How many US-based LSPs do you think will hire FT translators/interpreters as employees, on payroll? A few? How many translators/interpreters will be employees? Dozens? In all languages? Doubtful.
In this age of globalization and with all the modern technology at hand, US-based freelancers will be forced to either change occupation or relocate.

I would love to be wrong about all of this!


Abba Storgen (X)
 
Dan Lucas
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No free lunches Mar 16, 2021

Eleftherios Kritikakis wrote:
Dan Lucas: "Software developers" is not entry coders. It takes years and tons of work to get to that point, and you better be young.

No moving the goalposts, please. You didn't specify "entry-level" in your previous: you said simply said "coding". Precision matters. Nevertheless, there are plenty of surveys out there putting entry-level developers on very good starting salaries. Of course, by that point - say, their early twenties - a decent developer will have already spent years and put in tons of work. And that's not surprising because there are no free lunches. Just as in translation, you need to have skills that are in demand and that are not easily replicated. But the demand and the money are certainly there.

Ageism is a different but important subject. I think affects almost every profession.

Statistics also will tell you that photographers are making decent money, but in reality more than 90% of them have disappeared (bankrupted) in the last 2 decades.

Well, again, data is king. I go with statistics over apocalyptic anecdotes, because extraordinary claims - "We're all doomed! Cancel your US citizenship and run for the hills!" - require extraordinary evidence. I see plenty of assertions, but zero evidence to back them up.

I'm guessing that in freelance photography, as in translation, you need the skills and you really need to be able to market them, and deliver on your promises. In other words, you need to be a competent businessman. As far as I can see, photography has already had its "machine translation" moment, because almost everybody now has a cellphone camera on them most of the time.

What having cameras available to all has taught us is that taking really good photos is difficult. I for one am happy to pay for a pro when a decent job is needed. My clients feel the same, but they only hire people who they feel are competent and reliable. Too many freelancers are failing to persuade clients that they belong in this category. Perhaps that's because they don't?

Regards,
Dan


 
Abba Storgen (X)
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My last word on this Mar 16, 2021

Dan Lucas wrote:
No moving the goalposts, please. You didn't specify "entry-level" in your previous:


You're treating legitimate concerns of livelihood as if we are in court and you're a lawyer dissecting words. That's not a relevant approach for the topic. Thousands of people already lost their jobs in California despite the late exemptions and the whole topic was a tiny note in the Media. So you're going against things that already happened. A volcano has already exploded, there's carnage, and you want to see statistics and dissect words and argue on semantics when people are facing bankruptcy over there. You didn't hear them because the last thing they'll do is rage on twitter to be noticed - such activities are reserved for those without real problems.
In this industry, a lot of things have changed for the worse over the years, as a result of competition between agencies that had no business engaging in this industry (clueless opportunists cannibalizing the market of knowledge workers), way before automation was effective. I've visited myself in the past more than 10 agencies which were 2-3 persons in one tiny office (web page showing skyscrapers and stock photos of corporate meetings), trying to generate enough clientele to sell the company to a major player, while causing price havoc and cultivating abusive practices in the meantime!

-- How many remember the time when the translator was paid $30/hour for formatting? I'm asking because end-clients are still paying the agencies for formatting ($50-$75/hour), but not transferring part of this to the translator who has to deal with tags and provides the formatting for free (unpaid work time).
-- How many translators know that large agencies charge the end-client "rush fees" for anything that's more than 1,700 words per day until the deadline, while translators never see this money and are never told that the project was sold as rush?
-- How many remember the time that they didn't have to be chained to a desktop staring at the screen day all day for jobs to appear on a project dispenser with the operator in the background counting kickbacks and assigning jobs to those who'll paypal back part of the fee? (for most, unpaid and totally unhealthy work time!).
-- The time when overall experience, and long experience in particular clients, was appreciated and preferred (therefore seniority was also rewarded!), and the department manager was evaluating based on quality and proven track record (nowadays is absent or bypassed).
-- The time when the only thing they had to worry about was the project at hand and some marketing once in a while, compared to today's environment?
-- The time when they didn't need to purchase 4-5 different software suites? (unpaid training time and additional expenses).
-- The time when they didn't need to be logged in multiple online platforms and maintain a registry of multiple passwords? (unpaid work time and unnecessary complexities and potential failure points).
-- The time when an agency would ask for a quote in good faith, and not "in order to shop around by using your quote as starting point"? (unpaid work time to calculate and produce the offer).

As Jaron Lanier stated, Silicon Valley discovered that the business practices they helped develop and propagate created "only a handful of winners, and a vast sea of losers, with nothing in between, no middle class". Which is where California has been heading in the last 20 years. Automation in the past was creating jobs in most cases. But nowadays automation doesn't create new jobs - it just eliminates knowledge workers and even artists, and cannibalizes industries along with all related jobs and surrounding specialties.

The Pro Act is the final blow of course because it simply forbids you to work (!). You know why people migrate? To find work. So, moving and rescinding US citizenship is not an over-reaction, it's a normal option. Others will try to find new jobs, which is always starting from scratch. Translators don't have high-value CVs.

People who have additional sources of income and are not affected by all the unpaid work, because they can pick and chose or not work at all, can't really understand. It's easy to criticize from a safe position.

------------------------------------------------------------

PS. As a side note on photography, it was "digital photography and social media" in general that caused the damage, not the "iPhone". It's not as if before the iPhone people carried a photographer with them wherever they went or on vacation... The only thing the iPhone replaced was the old compact cameras. The iPhone alone had zero effect on professional photographers, it only affected photo labs.
People are still calling photographers for their weddings, events, and even more assistants for completely informal events.
In reality (here's the relevant part) the activity of pro photographers (events and number of shutter clicks) has actually increased. But their income went down!
It was a) the sharp reduction in prints and albums to share photos due to social media, b) high freelance taxes and insurance costs which forced them to work under companies (agencies) with their income reduced to only labor, turning them from business owners to plain workers, just as it happened for almost all full time translators, c) high local taxes that made it prohibitive to run traditional photographic stores from which they could sell things (Amazon was unaffected by local taxes). For the vast majority of them, it's only underpaid or unpaid labor nowadays, despite the increased activity, because they also have to do digital editing (at their own time and expense), social media photo preparations and postings (unpaid work), which was not an issue in the past.
Digital photography and social media created huge additional processes for them that the end-client won't pay, while eliminating their traditional sources of 60-70% of their income.
Ironically in the end, the remaining photographers ended up in a better position than translators (despite 90% elimination), because there's still at least the labor left to do, and it has to be done skillfully in all cases, each and every time. There's no "translation memory" in life events.
In translations, 70% of texts are so standardized that the machine uses previous phrases and algorithms to do it as skillfully as the person who initially typed them. Every time I hear "my clients don't use MT and I refuse to use it etc etc", or "I ask my prices and my clients pay them", I hear a translator not working full time but only occasional small projects from small agencies on the side, while collecting his/her necessary income from different sources.


 
Esther Pugh
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A voice of reason Mar 16, 2021

Here’s Senator Tim Scott from SC during the Julie Su hearing today. He explained the ABC test and how it has affected Californian ICs, but of course she dodged the question.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W_jRFZSlvdE


Irene (Renata) Liapis
 
Dan Lucas
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Experience and skills could not be more relevant Mar 16, 2021

Eleftherios Kritikakis wrote:
Dan Lucas wrote:
No moving the goalposts, please. You didn't specify "entry-level" in your previous

You're treating legitimate concerns of livelihood as if we are in court and you're a lawyer dissecting words. That's not a relevant approach for the topic.

Oh yes it is. This is not semantics. This is an issue of credibility. You dismissed the idea that people should learn a new profession by arguing that coding doesn't pay the bills. This is a testable assertion, so I linked to actual data proving that it does pay the bills, in spades. If you can't get something as simple as this right, why should anybody listen to you? Anybody can rant.

In response you effectively said, well, yeah, but those are people with experience and qualifications. That's the whole point. Why would you expect to be able to walk into any line of work with minimal skills and get paid well? If you have skills that are both in demand and onerous to acquire then you can make a good living in almost any profession. Some of us have made a good living in translation and continue to do so. Maybe not for ever, but then no profession is immune to change.

As for the "livelihoods" comment, although I don't live in the US I am indeed concerned about the impact on freelancers. Several times in this thread already I've expressed both my opposition to AB5 and my skepticism regarding the likely outcomes of the PRO Act.

Esther Pugh wrote:
A voice of reason
Here’s Senator Tim Scott from SC during the Julie Su hearing today. He explained the ABC test and how it has affected Californian ICs, but of course she dodged the question.

This isn't about reason. This isn't about trying to better the lives of Americans. This is about ideology, about trying to move political dialogue, and the Overton window, ever more to the left. Think we'll be seeing a lot more of this kind of thing in the US over the next few years.

Regards,
Dan


Liviu-Lee Roth
 
Abba Storgen (X)
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PS. The right to work in Amerika Mar 17, 2021

[quote]Dan Lucas wrote:

[quote]Eleftherios Kritikakis wrote:
Dan Lucas wrote:

In response you effectively said, well, yeah, but those are people with experience and qualifications. That's the whole point. Why would you expect to be able to walk into any line of work with minimal skills and get paid well?
Regards,
Dan


Exactly, that's what I'm saying too. We don't disagree. That is why the PRO Act will be catastrophic. People's financial obligations won't wait while someone tries to acquire new skills.

As far as your comment on the recent ideological bend of the USA, there's a 3-minute video on YouTube with title "Rep. worries Guam will capsize". It's real. Americans are under the impression that their politicians have at least decent intelligence or know what they're talking about or what they're signing. Most voters vote 'general fashionable banners" and nothing on the real issues that affect their lives (just the wishful thinking "that's absurd, they would never do something stupid"). While people who have thoughtful approach and common sense never become politicians.

If the PRO Act passes, former free-lancers may open up a "community" page on Facebook and give each other virtual hugs and occasionally apologize for their privilege to be unemployed without benefits. Passive people (the Greek pronunciation of the word points to 'pathetic') always have it coming against them, it's a law of nature (lawyers on the other hand, being an aggressive species, never have such or other laws issued against them).
Just look at the response of the ATA: they issued a statement begging for the natural human right of their members to work for themselves! In the USA!
Maybe they'll pass it with exemptions for T&Is, but most agencies won't take the chance on the basis of an exemption, when non-USA T&Is are a completely free market, no questions asked, no regulatory oversight, not even 1099s or any other filing requirements. They don't even have to keep records of them if they don't want to.

Good night to all and good luck.


Esther Pugh
 
gayd (X)
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employees vs freelancers Mar 19, 2021

Dan Lucas wrote:

Eleftherios Kritikakis wrote:
If you remind them that coding nowadays hardly pays any bills and it may be affected negatively by the PRO Act as well, they just won't respond.

Other people have different views that are perhaps grounded on better information. If we move away from anecdote and opinion, however repeatedly and forcefully expressed, we find that data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics points to a median annual wage for software developers of $108k, and growth of greater than 20% annually until the end of the decade.

But what does the BLS know, eh? Perhaps they're just indulging in classic denial-bargaining.

Dan

EDIT: it was the median annual wage, not the average - corrected



[Edited at 2021-03-15 09:16 GMT]


I think Eleftherios Kritikakis was talking about freelance coders.
Of course, if you're hired by Google or other software companies, you can earn a lot of money but those developers are not freelancers.
Moreover, these developers have an outstanding scientific background, which is not the case for most freelance translators.


[Modifié le 2021-03-19 12:55 GMT]


 
gayd (X)
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computer programmers Mar 19, 2021

Dan Lucas wrote:

Eleftherios Kritikakis wrote:
If you remind them that coding nowadays hardly pays any bills and it may be affected negatively by the PRO Act as well, they just won't respond.

Other people have different views that are perhaps grounded on better information. If we move away from anecdote and opinion, however repeatedly and forcefully expressed, we find that data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics points to a median annual wage for software developers of $108k, and growth of greater than 20% annually until the end of the decade.

But what does the BLS know, eh? Perhaps they're just indulging in classic denial-bargaining.

Dan

EDIT: it was the median annual wage, not the average - corrected



[Edited at 2021-03-15 09:16 GMT]


Job Outlook
Employment of computer programmers is projected to decline 9 percent from 2019 to 2029. Computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, so companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower.
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm


 
Dan Lucas
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Opportunities Mar 19, 2021

David GAY wrote:
Job Outlook
Employment of computer programmers is projected to decline 9 percent from 2019 to 2029. Computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, so companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower.
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm

Yes, if you're a computer programmer you may be struggling to pay the bills on a median wage of only $86,550 a year.

Personally I would advise some of the 213,900 people estimated by the BLS to work in this category of computer programmers to re-skill and join the 1,469,200 others in the software development market, which is nearly seven times the size, pays even more money (median annual salary of $107,510), and is projected to grow at 22% YoY.

To put that in perspective, if those forecasts are correct, the incremental increase in demand for software developers in the US in a single year is larger than the entire market for computer programmers. Opportunity knocks - for those willing to get off the sofa and open the door.

Dan


 
gayd (X)
gayd (X)
I'm not sure... Mar 19, 2021

that most translators have the necessary skills to become programmers let alone software developers. Besides, the wage mentioned is probably the wage of employees holding at least an associate's degree in computer science, not the income of freelance coders without any academic qualification.

[Modifié le 2021-03-19 20:07 GMT]


 
Dan Lucas
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Sure, not everybody Mar 19, 2021

David GAY wrote:
that most translators have the necessary skills to become programmers let alone software developers.

I don't think most translators have the necessary skills to become successful translators, let alone software developers or programmers, but they still translate.

Setting that aside, the original argument made (which I believe to be demonstrably incorrect) was that coding doesn't pay the bills. Even if you were only to make half the median wage in either of the two fields mentioned, because your skills aren't great, and you can't get a great employer, you'd still be doing OK. Probably better than a significant fraction of freelance translators.

Of course, it doesn't have to be IT. There are always new occupations popping up as the economy changes. You have to find something you can do, and adapt. There are no industries that do not see change and disruption. I know somebody who made a career change ten years ago, went into environmental assessments for housing, and is doing well. He'll never be rich, but neither will most of us. His particular area of business didn't exist even 15 years ago.

To come back to software, an academic qualification might be necessary for some career paths, but you can also set up a git account and create an interesting new piece of software, or write a library for an existing ecosystem, and so on. Many firms would find a track record in creating and maintaining proven software proven in the real world, and with the source code on display, far more compelling than a degree. It's primarily about willpower and competence.

There's nothing to stop you taking qualifications part-time. It costs effort and some money, so it's not going to be easy, but that's the barrier to entry you have to overcome for more traditional roles. That's what keeps the barbarians from the gate. Translation doesn't have those barriers, so practitioners face different challenges. Again, it's about the will to act, to make oneself better.

However, going back to an issue mentioned earlier by both myself and Eleftherios, ageism is a genuine problem in most industries. I felt it once I got into my 40s in the finance industry, and I'd guess it really bites in a startup full of 20- or 30-somethings. So that's also an issue, and it's only going to become more acute as people live, and inevitably work, longer.

Dan


 
gayd (X)
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the trouble Mar 19, 2021

Dan Lucas wrote:

However, going back to an issue mentioned earlier by both myself and Eleftherios, ageism is a genuine problem in most industries. I felt it once I got into my 40s in the finance industry, and I'd guess it really bites in a startup full of 20- or 30-somethings. So that's also an issue, and it's only going to become more acute as people live, and inevitably work, longer.

Dan


The trouble is most translators on PROZ are at least 45-50 years old. So it makes things very complicated


 
Dan Lucas
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True Mar 19, 2021

David GAY wrote:
The trouble is most translators on PROZ are at least 45-50 years old. So it makes things very complicated

It certainly makes some things harder. So let's try and hang on to what we've got as freelancers by continuously honing our skills. Case in point: I'll be spending several hours tomorrow in a writing workshop...

Dan


 
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